Dept. of Futures Supervision				No. 39  (Total No. 411 )				October 17 , 2008
1. Trading  on  futures exchanges
Exchanges		Volume (lot)	Change (%)	Percentage (%)	Turnover (100 million)	Change (%)	Percentage (%)	Position (lot)	Change (%)
Shanghai Futures Exchange		6 , 494 , 468	116.1%	15.7%	5 , 329.16	126.9%	33.1%	621 , 626	0.1%
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange		15 , 631 , 500	51.1%	37.8%	4 , 740.353	44.1%	29.4%	1 , 036 , 576	-0.6%
Dalian Commodity Exchange		19 , 268 , 700	74.2%	46.5%	6 , 031.07	68.4%	37.5%	1 , 319 , 800	9.3%
Total		41 , 394 , 668	69.6%	100.0%	16 , 100.58	74.6%	100.0%	2 , 978 , 002	3.7%
2. Trading of commodities futures
Type	Volume (lot)		Turnover (100 million)	Change (%)	Percentage (%)	Position (lot)	Change (%)	Stock (ton)	Monthly settlement (lot)
Copper	817 , 696		1 , 670.63	420.1%	10.4%	38 , 730	-78.0%	34 , 790	1 , 519
Aluminum	1 , 726 , 132		1 , 210.4	117.2%	7.5%	172 , 320	1.2%	204 , 682	4 , 425
Zinc	691 , 180		395.28	45.5%	2.5%	151 , 920	14.2%	72 , 526	2 , 145
Gold	259 , 734		476.89	-32.9%	3.0%	135 , 978	239.8%	0.03	9
Natural rubber	1 , 612 , 822		1 , 118.71	7378.0%	6.9%	74 , 938	53.2%	66 , 605	586
Fuel oil	1 , 386 , 904		457.24	-3.4%	2.8%	47 , 740	-9.8%	42 , 344	740
Hard wheat	8 , 216		1.49	-46.4%	0.0%	6 , 502	-19.1%	120	0
Strong gluten wheat	1 , 132 , 302		222.59	2.7%	1.4%	253 , 300	-11.2%	173 , 680	10 , 630
Cotton	575 , 650		356.12	-45.9%	2.2%	57 , 878	-14.2%	1900	5 , 016
Sugar	12 , 785 , 864		3 , 796.36	93.3%	23.6%	554 , 742	7.0%	55 , 960	22 , 794
PTA	413 , 740		126.96	-36.9%	0.8%	60 , 540	-8.7%	125 , 745	87 , 936
Rapeseed oil	715 , 728		236.83	-3.8%	1.5%	103 , 614	6.9%	10 , 610	8 , 916
Yellow soybean No.1	8 , 538 , 200		2 , 756.13	113.2%	17.1%	568 , 800	72.6%	7 , 664	4 , 460
Yellow soybean No.2	1 , 000		0.35	-27.1%	0.0%	100	25.0%	0	0
Corn	4 , 484 , 100		738.53	14.5%	4.6%	406 , 900	-28.9%	29 , 249	78 , 130
Soybean meal	3 , 620 , 800		967.83	101.7%	6.0%	144 , 600	7.9%	65	180
Soybean oil	1 , 841 , 600		1 , 209.54	32.9%	7.5%	128 , 200	19.4%	1 , 967	25 , 260
LLDPE	487 , 600		209.56	29.1%	1.3%	37 , 200	16.3%	1 , 042	3 , 180
Palm oil	295 , 400		149.15	62.6%	0.9%	34 , 000	4.4%	692	0
Total	41 , 394 , 668		16 , 100.59	74.6%	100.0%	2 , 978 , 002	3.7%	829 , 641	255 , 926

 

3. Analysis of factors influencing the market

International gold futures fell this week with the weakening liquidity and capital shortage of the financial market as a result of the US subprime mortgage crisis, so did Shanghai gold futures. International copper futures rebounded quickly at the beginning after the bailout measures launched by US and other major western countries, but later dropped for the market worries that the inevitable global economic slowdown would lead to the decreasing demand for base metal and the continuous outflow of capital from the commodity futures market. Shanghai copper futures declined. International aluminum futures regained slightly for consolidation at the beginning from the technical side support after continuous decrease for a long time, and later shed amid the general negative expectations of investors on the global economic prospect and the statistics that US’s manufacturing was at its lowest in the past 18 years. The slack domestic demand, the stock pressure, the purchasing triggered by low spot price and the realization of the production reduction rumor led to the rising price of Shanghai aluminum futures. Overshadowed by the market panic, the growing stock in the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the report of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group that the global refined zinc would have a surplus of 0.15 million tons this year and 0.33 million tons next year, international zinc futures lost, so did Shanghai zinc futures. The falling international crude oil price, the market expectation that the rubber demand would further weaken and the rumor that Chinese buyer refuse to fulfill the agreement of rubber purchase led to the decline of Tokyo rubber futures. Shanghai rubber futures dropped as a result of the pessimistic outlook of the domestic market, the shrinking domestic spot demand and the downward international crude oil price. International crude oil futures decreased with the market concern that the global economic decline would lead to the dropping crude oil demand and also the surge of US crude oil and gasoline stock, so did Shanghai fuel oil futures. Zhengzhou wheat futures climbed after fluctuation, cotton futures fluctuated downward, sugar futures fluctuated upward, PTA futures dropped after fluctuation, and rapeseed oil fell. Dalian soybean No.1 futures fluctuated downward, soybean meal futures lost, soybean oil futures slumped, corn futures gained, LLDPE futures decreased, and palm oil futures fell at a low price.